Swapo battle shifts into another gear

Swapo battle shifts into another gear


THE appointment of Utoni Nujoma as Namibia’s new Foreign Minister should not be seen as the high-water mark of his political ascendancy, nor just a run-of-the-mill promotion as some may think.

On the contrary, it is yet another shift in gear for Nujoma junior who has been waiting patiently in the wings to strike at the right time and ultimately become not only Swapo but also Namibia’s President.
Strikingly, not only Nujoma but several others must have walked away on Sunday night believing they had made progress in yet another round of the battle for supremacy in the ruling party and Namibian politics.
Also in this elite group are the likes of new Education Minister Abraham Iyambo and new Safety and Security Minister Nangolo Mbumba. Both have made steady progress in the party ranks and their chances of ending up in the uppermost office should also be seared into the nation’s consciousness.
The dark horse could be the gravel-voiced, outspoken and straight-talking Kazenambo Kazenambo, the new Minister of Youth and Sport.
By the way, these are all challengers for the presidential race after Hage Geingob has finished his one or two terms as well as the emergence of either the first female President in Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana or a Jerry Ekandjo, who is also waiting in the wings.
To all intents and purposes Geingob appears set to become the new Swapo leader, but his followers would be wise to play by the party rules and not frustrate the “power-that-be” in Swapo for the next two years.
By frustrate I mean the noise made by Kazenambo in a local weekly about whether it is time for a non-Owambo leader to become Swapo president.
While Kazenambo has every right to freedom of expression, Geingob needs no campaign team in Swapo to become the successor to Pohamba as things are now.
In July last year, the Swapo Central Committee effectively paved the way for Geingob when it approved draft rules and procedures for the election of its office bearers, clearly outlining the line of succession.
It states that the party’s presidential candidate will come from the top four party leaders in order of seniority. Another line in the document states that if the sitting President cannot be re-elected because of the two-term constraint, the ruling party’s vice president will be the automatic choice as presidential candidate.
It was introduced to avoid a repeat of the 2004 Swapo extraordinary congress when Pohamba had to vie with Hidipo Hamutenya, who has since left the party and formed the Rally for Democracy and Progress, and Prime Minister Nahas Angula, in a three-cornered contest.
A campaign for Geingob will only harden the hearts of those who have started accepting that the Swapo vice president is likely to become their new leader after Pohamba’s exit. It won’t do him any favours as ‘guided democracy’ has already been set in motion.
What it will certainly do is to antagonise certain quarters, widen already existing camps and cause an uncomradely kerfuffle which could easily reverberate throughout the party.
The end result is losing out on a leader who stands head and shoulders above many of his colleagues as a voice of reason.
Without wanting to sound like an oracle ensconced in some seat of better wisdom, I believe that the question on many minds should be whether Iyambo, Mbumba and Kazenambo will now build their ascendancy on a rock or on sand.
For Swapo are, in many respects, a difficult bunch to unbundle. The internal political dynamics can change very quickly. Just take Helmut Angula who ended up jobless after taking on the party’s youth league.
Those who may look askance at Utoni Nujoma’s ascendancy need only glance at other family dynasties around the world. An example is the Bush family in America and how the son returned a few years after the father stepped down as the president of one of the world’s biggest democracies.
Nujoma has an influential group of backers in Swapo, starting with his father, and the power of historical example can never be ruled out completely.
That is despite him trying by all means to be a politician in his own right, and attempting to move out of his father’s shadow.
The 2012 party congress thus becomes increasingly important as any serious contender for the higher echelons of Swapo needs to get into the top four positions and move up the ladder with time.
For now, and as sure as Amen follows a prayer, the political battle in Swapo has just stepped up another gear.

* This article first appeared in The Namibian