What Went Wrong In Windhoek East?

SWAPO’s poor performance in the Windhoek East constituency in last week’s election has raised many eyebrows among the party’s followers while the political aficionados have their hands in their hair as they ponder what exactly might have led to the change.

As for Swapo members, the North was abuzz this week with discussion and rumours as to whether all those in Windhoek East constituency who claim to be members of the party were indeed so!
Democrats of all persuasions will agree with me that there is nothing wrong with Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) candidate Nic Kruger collecting the majority of votes in a constituency in which many of the rich and affluent society of Namibia live.
Kruger is a well known personality and led a strategic campaign and his win can be compared to Swapo’s victories in Omaruru and Dâures which created much euphoria among the party’s rank and file. They took the two constituencies from the United Democratic Front.
The Dâures constituency was an especially severe blow since it lies in the heartland of UDF and because the seat of the Damara people is Okombahe.
Therefore, like the UDF in Omaruru and Okombahe, there were very few vuvuzelas for Swapo to blow in Windhoek East.
But the ruling party can’t take an ostrich-head-in-the-sand approach in that constituency.
It is an area made up of, among others, the Suiderhof Military Base, Luiperdsvallei Military Base and Israel Patrick Iyambo Police College.
It means soldiers and Police trainees are supposed to be among the 8 660 registered voters in the constituency.
Residents of Ludwigsdorf, Suiderhof and Olympia are also in the constituency.
Those residents include Swapo’s top brass like founding President Sam Nujoma, President Hifikepunye Pohamba, Swapo vice president Hage Geingob, Prime Minister Nahas Angula, Speaker of the National Assembly Theo-Ben Gurirab, Swapo secretary general Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana, former Deputy Prime Minister Libertina Amathila, Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, suspended army chief Martin Shalli, Tuliameni Kalomoh, Tom Alweendo, Eunice Ipinge, Aaron Mushimba, Andrew Ndishishi and former Windhoek Mayor Matheus Shikongo.
They are all regarded as very influential members of the party.
Windhoek East was gerrymandered and part of it was combined with places such as Groot Aub, Stinkwater, Dordabis, Brakwater, Mix Camp, Eselmaanhaar and other farms around Windhoek to ‘export’ votes out to Windhoek Rural and thereby increase Swapo’s chances of keeping the constituency.
So what exactly went wrong with Swapo in Windhoek East constituency?
The answer is simple. Many did not vote.
Soldiers, trainee Police officers and the rich or well-off Swapo members and their families living in the posh areas of Windhoek stayed away from the polling stations.
There is a feeling among Swapo members in Hakahana, Okahandja Park, Ombili and Havana that their well-off comrades in those areas see no need to vote. That is apparently also the reason why there were no campaign rallies there and many did not display the party’s flags at their houses.
That’s a tricky rationale because some of those living in the posh suburbs are judges (like Petrus Damaseb) and civil servants (like Andrew Ndishishi and Joseph Iita) who should not be seen politicking because of their duties in the society.
But I wonder whether we are not dealing with an embryonic trend here, especially in the army camps.
We all know that Martin Shalli, a highly influential soldier, remains suspended for more than a year.
What type of impact does his suspension have on the decision of the soldiers to stay away from the polling stations? Does it indeed have an impact? Were the soldiers and police discouraged from voting, and if so, by whom?
When Swapo narrowly beat RDP by two votes in New York in last year’s general elections, it was the catalyst to the calls by the Swapo Party Youth League (SPYL) for the recall of Namibia’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Dr Kaire Mbuende.
Although Mbuende had no impact on the Namibians living in the US and who voted at the embassy’s premises, he has since been recalled.
Does it mean that SPYL will also agitate for the recall of the party’s top heavyweights after the Windhoek East failure?