Pohamba’s Dilemma:Whether To Support Angula Or Geingob

OK, I’ve been paying a disproportionate amount of attention to Swapo and its internal politicking, but it’s not my fault.

Most of the debate within the opposition parties is incredibly boring.
In fact, in some, like the United Democratic Front or the National Unity Democratic Organisation (Nudo), you do not even hear about a debate for succession.
A child born in 1990 has known only one leader of the UDF and can be pardoned for thinking that the party is the property of Justus //Garoëb. And the same goes for Nudo where we have not seen a contest for the presidency for some time now.
At the DTA, Katuutire Kaura has had challengers but they struggle to come up with a better candidate to take over from him.
So succession and opposition are two symmetrically opposed ideas.
With Swapo, there continues to be a lively debate, not only among members but even outsiders, about positions within the party.
This is because many see the party – at least for now – as a vehicle for the political hopes of many as well as a key player in the delivery of services.
There is no way you can talk about bread-and-butter issues without mentioning Swapo at the moment.
That is also why Swapo should stop telling others to mind about their own affairs.
And the latest affairs in Swapo deal with the succession debate.
While President Hifikepunye Pohamba is guaranteed to serve as the party’s and country’s leader for the next four years, the party approved rules and procedures in 2009 already for the election of its office-bearers, clearly outlining the line of succession.
The procedures state that the presidential candidate will come from the top four party leaders in order of seniority. Another line in the document states that if the incumbent President cannot be re-elected because of the two-term constraint, the ruling party’s vice president will be the automatic choice as presidential candidate.
Such rules and procedures were introduced to avoid a repetition of the 2004 Swapo extraordinary congress.
During that congress Pohamba came up against Hidipo Hamutenya (who has since left the party and formed the Rally for Democracy and Progress) and Prime Minister Nahas Angula in a three-cornered contest.
So the key to ascendancy to the party presidency is to become the vice president of Swapo at next year’s congress and that is why some in the Swapo Party Youth League and other levels have started campaigning for debate.
In fact, they have not only started campaigning for debate but moves such as the calls to disband the youth wing’s national executive committee are directly linked to getting people who will support a certain candidate.
Soon similar calls for changes will emerge from within the Swapo Party Women’s League.
For now, Hage Geingob faces Prime Minister Nahas Angula and the party’s secretary general, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana.
Both Geingob and Angula will have served the country for two terms as Prime Minister and both believe that the next step is to lead the country.
No one will admit it yet, but Angula’s machinery is well oiled with current and former Cabinet members as people who do the donkey-work (campaigning) and some of them have openly revealed that it is time for a Ndonga to take over.
Similarly, Geingob also has his backing with people such as Kazenambo Kazenambo who believes that Swapo is ready for a non-Oshiwambo-speaking leader. Geingob is a member of the minority Damara tribe.
With Angula having thrown his weight behind Pohamba after the fallout from the 2004 Swapo candidacy race, it will now be interesting to see who Pohamba will back next year.
Will he opt for Geingob, who is also favoured by former President Sam Nujoma, or will he throw his weight behind the man he handpicked as Prime Minister?
Should Pohamba’s decision be guided by favours from the 2004 congress or by who will best serve the nation as a leader and keep the ruling party intact?
That surely will create a mesmerising debate as discussions around the presidential race continue.