Ithana Has A Strategy For Geingob

IN July 2009 Swapo’s Central Committee took a resolution which, at first glance, looked like it was effectively paving the way for Hage Geingob to succeed President Hifikepunye Pohamba.

The rules and procedures passed with the resolution for the election of Swapo’s office bearers clearly defined the line of succession and stated that the party’s presidential candidate would come from the top four party leaders in order of seniority.
Party insiders, especially the youth wing who moved the proposal, argued that the documented line of succession would avoid what happened at the 2004 Swapo extraordinary congress where Pohamba went head-to-head with Hidipo Hamutenya, after Prime Minister Nahas Angula fell out in the first round.
The acrimony around the tussle for the position was so bad it led to Hamutenya ultimately leaving Swapo to form the Rally for Democracy and Progress.
The rules and procedures state that if the sitting President cannot be re-elected because of the two-term constraint, the ruling party’s vice president will be the automatic choice as presidential candidate.
Geingob, being the current vice-president of the ruling party, just needed to hold onto the position at the 2012 Swapo congress to be in line to contest the country’s presidency for the 2014 presidential elections.
The rules are also clear that in the case of the vice president not being available, the secretary general is next, followed by the deputy secretary general in case the SG cannot stand or declines.
The secret, however, was for Geingob to hold onto the position he currently occupies.
Those in the party’s inner circles regarded such ‘holding onto’ as ‘very easy’. He was just required to remain quiet - not campaigning and going about his work as Trade Minister while diligently attending party functions.
But those supporting Geingob must have got wind from somewhere or did not trust the party inner circle enough and started campaigning openly.
One of those is Kazenambo Kazenambo who made no secret of the fact that Geingob should be the next leader of the ruling party. In the process he ruffled a lot of feathers.
Geingob has not openly stated his ambition to take over when Pohamba steps down but it is no secret that he is after the position.
It is also a fact that, although there are others, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana has emerged as his immediate challenger.
The party’s secretary general has repeatedly attempted to play the ‘if people want me’ and ‘it is not the right time’ card. That is at least in public, but she has been doing a lot of behind-the-scenes campaigning among the party wings.
We know that in Swapo, to progress at the electoral college, you need to hide your ambitions as much as possible in public circles.
That’s Ithana’s recipe for now, coupled with the fact that it is time for a first female President of Namibia.
But it should be on record that both Geingob and Ithana have gone all-out with their campaign and that both are not holding back in their attempt to be the presidential candidate of Swapo.
Meetings are held on a one-on-one basis with key people while the machinery is running at full steam to get the right people at section, branch and regional levels.
The aim is to have enough people in the right places when the party’s wings elect people who will attend the electoral college.
So when Ithana publicly states that ‘it is not the right time’ to talk about succession or that the people have not yet decided, this is merely a strategy and nothing else.
She has already informed the people that she is ready to stand. As has Geingob.
It will be interesting to see who else, if anyone, will join them in the race and if so, what strategy such a person will employ.